NESA Center Academic Publication
Abdul Amir Kamel Alshammari – Ministry of Interior, Government of Iraq
17 July 2025

 

EXTRACT

Strategic analysis and international crisis management are crucial tools for decision-makers in various fields, especially in politics and international relations, strategic analysis aims to study the internal and external environment of institutions or states, identify threats and opportunities, and assess the capabilities available to meet challenges.

As for international crisis management, it focuses on how to deal with unexpected crises that threaten security and stability, crisis management goes through several main stages: forecasting and preparedness, immediate response, containing the crisis, recovery and adaptation, and finally drawing lessons to prevent the recurrence of crises.

Crisis management requires a proactive approach based on careful planning and coordination between various stakeholders, whether governments, international organizations, or the private sector, and technology and communications play a vital role in providing accurate information for quick and effective decision-making.

In general, strategic analysis and international crisis management are two interrelated elements to ensure the stability of states and institutions in a dynamic environment full of challenges, which contributes to enhancing national security and achieving sustainable development.

 

ABSTRACT

Strategic analysis and international crisis management are critical tools for decision-makers in various fields, especially in politics and international relations. Strategic analysis aims to study the internal and external environments of institutions and countries, identify threats and opportunities, and assess the available capabilities to face challenges.

International crisis management, on the other hand, focuses on handling unexpected crises that threaten security and stability. Crisis management goes through several key stages: prediction, preparation, immediate response, crisis containment, recovery, adaptation, and learning lessons to prevent future crises.

Effective crisis management requires a proactive approach based on careful planning and coordination among various stakeholders, including governments, international organizations, and the private sector. Technology and communication also play a vital role in providing accurate information to facilitate quick and effective decision-making.

Overall, strategic analysis and international crisis management are interconnected elements essential for ensuring the stability of countries and institutions in a dynamic, challenge-filled environment. Their integration contributes to enhancing national security and achieving sustainable development.

Keywords: Strategic analysis, strategy, security crisis management, crisis management.

 

RESEARCH INTRODUCTION

First: Research Subject:

The world today is witnessing a remarkable increase in international crises, whether political, economic, health, environmental, or military, which requires the adoption of advanced strategies to manage them and reduce their repercussions, as the international crisis is defined as an unexpected situation that leads to turmoil in the global or regional system, and affects the interests of states and actors, hence, the need for strategic analysis emerged as a necessary tool to understand the dynamics of crises, foresee their future, and take effective decisions to deal with them.

Strategic analysis depends on studying the factors affecting crises, and identifying possible trends for their development, which helps to develop proactive plans and contain risks before they turn into deep crises, and crisis management is a series of actions and decisions aimed at reducing the impact of the crisis, restoring stability, and enhancing the ability to respond quickly.

Second: The Importance of Research:

Through a deep understanding of global events, governments and international organizations can develop flexible strategies adapted to the rapid changes in the international landscape, and the research contributes to providing insights on how to improve preparations to face potential crises, and reduce their economic, social and political impacts.

Third: Research Objectives:

The research aims to achieve a set of basic objectives, including:

1. Highlighting the concept of strategic analysis and its role in international crisis management.
2. Exploring modern tools and techniques used in strategic analysis to face crises.
3. Providing practical recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of strategic analysis in crisis management.

Fourth: The Problem of Research:

Despite the tremendous developments in political and strategic science, many countries and organizations still face great challenges in dealing with international crises, often, dealing with crises is not systematic, which exacerbates problems instead of solving them, hence, the problem of this research starts in trying to answer the following main question:

How can strategic analysis be effectively employed in managing international crises to minimize their repercussions and promote global stability?

Under this main question fall a number of sub-questions, including:

1. To what extent does strategic analysis affect the efficiency of international crisis management?
2. What are the tools and methods used in strategic analysis to anticipate and deal with crises?
3. How do political, economic, and technological factors affect the effectiveness of crisis management?

Fifth: Research Hypothesis:

The research proceeds from the basic premise that the use of strategic analysis based on advanced scientific foundations contributes to improving the management of international crises by predicting risks, making proactive decisions, and developing effective strategies to reduce negative repercussions.

Sixth: Research Methods:

Due to the complex nature of the topic, the research relies on the descriptive analytical approach,  which is used to describe the nature of international crises, the factors that lead to their emergence, and the analysis of the strategies used to confront them.

Seventh: Research Structure:

The research was divided into two requirements, the first requirement dealt with the nature of strategic analysis and the second requirement dealt with the international crisis and its strategic management, and a conclusion was developed for the research .

 

FIRST REQUIREMENT

What is strategic analysis?

Strategic analysis is  a necessary tool to understand international crises and deal with them effectively, as it helps in anticipating their repercussions and drawing the most appropriate paths to respond to them, as it is not limited to just an evaluation process, but an integrated approach that contributes to directing decisions and formulating appropriate strategies, and this analysis stems from a deep understanding of the factors affecting the crisis, which allows anticipating possible scenarios and planning to confront them effectively, and from this point of view, this requirement will be divided into two branches:   In the first section, we deal with the concept of strategic analysis, while  the second section will focus on the objectives and methods of strategic analysis, explaining its role in supporting decision-makers through advanced analysis tools and methods.

Section I

The concept of strategic analysis.

To clarify the concept of strategic analysis, it had to be divided into two points, in the first we show the definition of strategic analysis, and the fact that accurate strategic analysis cannot be achieved without adhering to specific conditions and criteria that ensure its objectivity and effectiveness, so we will address in the second point the conditions of strategic analysis that determine the foundations and criteria necessary to ensure its success.

First: Definition of Strategic Analysis:

To clarify the definition of strategic analysis, it was necessary to clarify its linguistic meaning first and then move to the statement of its idiomatic meaning as follows:

1. The meaning of strategic analysis language: “analysis” in the Arabic language is derived from the root “analyzed”, which means the separation of the thing into its basic elements or components to understand it more accurately, which is an intellectual process aimed at dismantling the phenomenon or subject to its components or parts, in order to study the relationships between these parts to reach a deeper understanding and analysis of the different dimensions of the subject.
   Linguistically strategic analysis means “a process of in-depth and thoughtful study of the environment and the influencing factors with a view to making comprehensive strategic decisions”, interacting with situations and events in  a future-focused manner  that takes into account the multiple dimensions of goals and ambitions^[1].
   The term strategic analysis is known in the English language as (Strategic Analysis), and the word strategy is derived from the Greek term (Strategos), as this word was known in military operations and plans, and then became part of the important parts in management science, as it helps managers to set goals for work, formulate plans and contribute to their achievement, by taking advantage of available resources, so the strategy worked as a tool aimed at developing business sectors.^[2]).
   It should also be distinguished between analysis and division (division) in that the analysis leads to the discovery of elements and assets, and then it defines us with the bug, but the parts of the division amount is exactly equal to the amount of the asset, and therefore the division does not explain anything, and there is also confusion between the term analysis and investigation, since the investigation is access to information, while analysis is a process to diagnose information in the event that it is ambiguous^{[3]).  )}
2. Definition of strategic analysis idiomatically:
   Some scholars have dealt with the definition  of strategic analysis with some definitions, the following of which can be mentioned:
   Strategic analysis is the process of  ^[4]integrating the various characteristics of the facility and its surroundings, taking into account the so-called champ debataille), which ultimately produces a set of desirable strategies on the one hand, and possible strategies on the other, and then the strategy that will be applied ^([5]), as strategic analysis is defined  : that part of strategic management that starts from the mission of the organization to analyze aspects of its empowerment and weakness, opportunities and threats to formulate strategies in support of that message, and others were able to define it: the process through which strategists monitor the environment sector to identify opportunities and threats facing the organization^The[6] Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Elimination
   Others define it: as determining the situation on which the decision is made, by collecting the influences of the external environment and classifying them into opportunities and threats, as well as collecting internal influences and dividing them into forces and weaknesses, and this analysis ends with decision-making regarding the development of the strategy.^[7]))
   The analysis expresses the process of clarifying the contents of things, and revealing what is intended, and analysis is defined as employing all possible tools and clues to raise the obstacles to perception and understanding of the contents of topics or events and phenomena to explore their meanings, and analysis is to rediscover the secret of the cohesion of the molecules of an idea or the data of an event or issue, and then re-evaluate them in the logical order, and the goal is either to discover the essence or discover the defect and decide the credibility of the construction intellectually and substantially. ^[8]))
   Therefore, the researcher believes that strategic analysis is a set of processes that lead to studying the internal environment of the facility and knowing the strengths and weaknesses on the one hand, studying the external environment and knowing the opportunities and threats on the other hand, then extracting the appropriate strategic alternatives, and then choosing the appropriate strategy

Second: Conditions of Strategic Analysis:

For strategic analysis to be effective, some important conditions must be met:

1. Collecting information: Collecting information is one of the basic conditions for strategic analysis, where data about goals is collected and their sources are analyzed to verify their validity, and the information is divided into indisputable facts, and hypothetical information used to form hypotheses that help in decision-making.^[9]))
2. Assess the situation: Strategic analysis requires clearly defining the situation, by defining the problem and analyzing the crisis, while estimating possible responses and future results, which helps in making effective strategic decisions.^([10])
3. Comprehensiveness: Strategic analysis must be comprehensive of all aspects related to the issue or crisis, including internal and external factors influencing the decision, in order to ensure integrated strategies^[11].
4. Provide a hypothetical model of objectives: Analysis requires the presentation of a hypothetical model of potential objectives, where the decision-maker must have a comprehensive perception of the changes and circumstances that may affect the outcome of the strategic decision^[12].
5. Evaluation of objectives (clarity of objectives): The strategic objective must be clear and achievable, with an assessment of its compatibility with the surrounding environment and the possibilities available to ensure its successful achievement^{[13]). )}
6. Provide an alternative: Strategic analysis requires foreseeing the future and providing different alternatives to anticipate future changes, while preparing multiple scenarios that support the most appropriate decision-making.^[14]))

In addition to the previous points, strategic analysis must be characterized by the ability to continuously evaluate and periodically review goals and decisions, and analysis processes must be enhanced by taking advantage of artificial intelligence techniques and modern data analytics that contribute to obtaining accurate and supportive insights for strategic decision-making.

 

Section II

Objectives and methods of strategic analysis.

First: Objectives of Strategic Analysis

1. General Objectives:^[15]

A. Environmental analysis: The first objective of strategic analysis is to study the internal and external environment in which the issue or crisis arises, and the environment is meant to be the framework in which the situation is formed, and includes social, cultural, political, and economic elements, and the internal environment is distinguished from the external environment according to the different interactions and elements in it, and the external environment can be divided into an international and regional environment based on those differences.

B. Definition of the problem or situation: One of the objectives of strategic analysis is to identify and define the problem or situation accurately, which is an essential step in making strategic decisions, this requires full knowledge of the size of the problem or crisis, which may range from challenges, threats, or regular problems, and crises must be classified into temporary or permanent according to their nature .

C. Strategic performance analysis of the state: Strategic analysis aims to study the internal and external performance of the state, in addition to improving its organizational efficiency.

D. Reduce uncertainty: Strategic analysis is a tool to reduce uncertainty, by clarifying information that may be ambiguous or missing, and although knowledge does not guarantee perfect decision-making, it enhances the odds of making more accurate and successful decisions.

E. Supporting Decision Makers: Strategic analysis aims to provide support to decision-makers and policy by providing an in-depth understanding of the historical, political, social, and cultural context of events, helping to guide future decisions.

2. Specific Objectives:^[16]

A. Maturing the strategic vision of the decision-maker: Strategic analysis works to mature and develop the strategic vision of the decision-maker, by providing a comprehensive vision for the future.

B. Interpreting situations and developing alternatives: Strategic analysis aims to interpret possible future situations, and provide appropriate alternatives to them using intellectual foresight tools, including determining the outcome of issues or crises, which helps the decision-maker to make thoughtful choices, and helps the strategic analyst guide the decision-maker away from the superficial simulation of great powers, to independent strategies based on the reality of the state.

C. Diagnosing and Interpreting Strategic Performance: Strategic analysis is a tool to understand the current situation of the country, determine its future goals, and evaluate its performance compared to other parties.

D. Integrating the behavior of the decision-maker with the environment: Strategic analysis helps to link the behavior of the decision-maker with the surrounding environment, if the environment is tense or calm, this can greatly affect the decisions made, the strategic analyst deals with this complex relationship and works to modify the behavior of the decision-maker to be compatible with the surrounding environment.

E. Simulation of the thought of the decision-maker: Often, countries seek to imitate the great powers in their policies, but strategic analysis enhances the state’s ability to make independent strategic decisions, away from blind imitation, as the strategic analyst seeks to reduce ill-considered simulation in favor of independence and logical strategic thought.

Second: Methods of Strategic Analysis:

1. Questionnaire method: The questionnaire is an essential tool in collecting the information needed by the strategic analyst, through which questions are formulated aimed at deriving answers that contribute to the formation of a comprehensive vision of the issue under research, and the information extracted from the questionnaire varies into two types: ready-made information, and indirect or unprepared information that contributes to the manufacture of new data, which helps to measure change and understand different images of situations.^{[17]) )}
2. Content analysis method: This method is mainly used to analyze various political discourses and leadership patterns, and the contents of diplomatic speeches and speeches, as well as public opinion and political opposition speeches, and images of the nation with others, as it contributes to understanding the intentions of other parties through their positions and statements, and enhances the analyst’s ability to convince the decision-maker by determining how the speeches affect public opinion or target parties, and use this to achieve strategic goals. ^[18]))
3. Measurement method: Measurement is the process of determining the value or quantitative and qualitative level of a particular phenomenon, depends on the collection of measurable data, such as a number or amount, with a rule linking the fact and the amount, this method is used to determine standards for political phenomena, such as measuring the experiences of countries that maintain nuclear arsenals to evaluate their behavior.^[19]))
4. Simulation method: Simulation is a modern method used to simulate a specific behavior or decision in the context of an artificial reality, which aims to test ideas and decisions in conditions similar to an existing reality, which is applied to analyze similar issues, such as simulating solutions to previous political issues and applying them to new issues, as happened with the Kurdish issue and South Sudan.
5. Observation method: Observation depends on the perception of phenomena and events using the senses, and this method is used to understand the patterns of political interactions and decisions of individuals and groups in fact, scientific observation, which is an accurate and organized method, aims to collect data regularly and analyze it according to clear hypotheses, while ensuring the validity and stability of the observed results.
   Among the types of observation:

• • • Normal observation: unregulated and used in everyday life.
    • Scientific observation: organized and directed to understand phenomena more deeply and analyze the hidden relationships between them.

These different methods contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of strategic analysis by collecting accurate data and analyzing it in scientific ways.^([20])

 

SECOND REQUIREMENT

The international crisis and its strategic management.

This requirement aims to analyze the concept of the international crisis and ways to manage it strategically in light of contemporary global challenges, understanding these crises requires a deep study of their characteristics and mechanisms for dealing with them at the international levelK To clarify these points, this requirement will be divided into two sections: In the first section, we will define international crises, highlighting their characteristics and most prominent classifications, In section II, we will focus on analysing strategies for dealing with international crises, reviewing methods and strategic approaches to managing them effectively.

Section I

The concept of international crises, their characteristics and classifications.

International crises are one of the complex issues that directly affect the international system, which requires understanding their nature and dimensions, so it was necessary to clarify the concept of international crises by reviewing their distinctive characteristics, as well as their various classifications that help determine strategies for dealing with them, this section will be addressed through three main axes: the definition of international crises, their basic characteristics, and their multiple classifications.

First: Definition of the international crisis:

The international crisis is one of the concepts that are characterized by multiple connotations in the fields of politics and international relations, in this section, we will address the definition of the crisis from two angles: the first from a linguistic point of view, where we review the meaning of the word “crisis” in the language, then move to its idiomatic definition in the context of international relations, and in the end, we will present the concept of international crisis in particular.

1. The meaning of the crisis language: Defines the tongue of the Arabs crisis as the severity and drought and crisis for the thing any hold him and the difficult crisis and crisis is the strait.^[21]))
2. Definition of crisis idiomatically: defined by the dictionary (Heritage) as: “a time or a decisive decision or an unstable situation that includes a decisive change expected as in political affairs.”^{[22]) )}

As defined by the Witter Dictionary, it is: “a turning point for better or worse in a serious illness, dysfunction or a radical change in the human condition that is unstable.”^(([23]

A crisis is also a critical   period or an unstable situation that leads to impactful results, usually characterized by the acceleration of events and the threat it calls for to the values and objectives espoused by those affected^[24].

As for the international crisis, it is defined as a situation arising from the intensification of the conflict between two or more States, as a result of one of the parties seeking to change the existing strategic balance, which poses a fundamental threat to the values, goals and interests of the opponent who is heading to resistance, and this situation continues for a relatively specific period of time, as well as a serious deterioration in relations between two or more States, resulting from a change in the external or internal environment. This deterioration creates in decision-makers an awareness of an external threat to the core values and objectives of their foreign policy, increases their awareness of the potential for involvement in military hostilities, and increases their awareness of the pressures of the limited time available to respond to or respond to that threat.^{[25]) )}

He also defined the international crisis (William Comte) as: “crises by their nature immerse prevailing beliefs about reality in a special way and among political decision-makers of this reality and are characterized by the presence of imminent danger and lack of determination of what will happen”, while the global crisis is wider and covers most countries of the world, as in the financial crisis that the world witnessed in 2008, as well as the health crisis that changed the entire world as a result of the Corona pandemic (Covid 19) and many others.^([26])

Second: Characteristics of the crisis:

Despite the different definitions of the concepts of the crisis, most of them agree that the crisis is a position characterized by three characteristics:

1. Threat: It is the actions and actions issued by an individual, group of individuals or a particular system, whether by sign, word or deed, in response to specific demands or conditions that the first party seeks to achieve by the second party, with the threat of the use of force when these demands are not met, hence the crisis ^[27]begins.
2. Surprise: The surprise may be in place or in time and the party that uses it to plan accurately to invest its results, in order to ensure the speed of implementation of what was planned in advance, and surprise in place: means that the crisis may erupt or worsen in an unexpected geographical location, which makes it difficult for the concerned parties to prepare for it or deal with it quickly and efficiently, but the surprise in time—It means choosing the appropriate timing in which the procedure is carried out so that it is at a time that the other party does not expect, which confuses his calculations and affects the speed and effectiveness of their response to it.^{[28]) )}
3. Lack of time: The sudden occurrence of the crisis reduces the time available to respond to it and respond effectively, while dealing with it requires great speed due to the threat it poses to national interests, and prior preparation may not be enough to confront it, and decision-makers realize that the period available for decision-making before the crisis worsens is limited, otherwise the decision may lose its effectiveness, this situation puts them under severe mental pressure, which may lead to their confusion, but the impact of This is done through continuous training, crisis forecasting, and the preparation of multiple scenarios and hypotheses to confront them^[29].

The extent of the short or sufficient time available for decision-making during the crisis varies from one decision-maker to another, and the adequacy of this time depends on the nature of the crisis itself, the more complex the crisis and the intertwining of its elements, the more decision-makers need more time to understand its dimensions, absorb it and take appropriate measures to confront it, in contrast, less complex crises require shorter time for decision-making and effective response to it.^(([30]

Third: Classification of crises:

1. In terms of the level of the crisis: ^([31]) must look at the crisis of the parties involved in it and the place of occurrence, and we can in the framework of that to divide the level of the crisis into external crises and other internal .

A. External crises: It is the crisis that occurs outside the borders of the state itself from parties that may be either hostile countries or on abnormal relations with the first country, or may be with a friendly country, and may be with organizations or parties belonging to foreign countries, and external crises can be divided into two parts:

• • • Regional crises: crises  that occur within  a region that has similar characteristics, such as Arab countries, Western European countries or the Group of Southeast Asian countries  , such as the crisis between  the Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan over  the Nagorno-Karabakh  region.
    • International crises: crises that arise between one country and another that does not belong to one region and the state aims to bring about a sharp and sudden change in the current international situation, which poses a direct and indirect threat to the national security of other countries or a group of countries resulting in reactions that may lead to armed conflict or create a strong sense of the possibility of war and is divided into two parts:

The first type: crises that can resort to war.

The second type: is crises that cannot afford to resort to a state of war, such as the crisis of the tripartite aggression against Egypt in 1956, and such as the Cuban missile crisis in 1962^[32].

• • • Internal crises: They are among the most serious threats  facing any State, as they affect its internal entity and national security, and these crises can be of a hostile or non-hostile nature^[33].
    • Crises of a hostile nature are usually limited to acts of sabotage and violence, internal terrorism, water and environmental pollution, in addition to hostile demonstrations and political assassinations, and can also take the form of a crisis of cultural and political integration, such as the crisis in South Sudan, which caused the depletion of the military, political and economic forces of Sudan since August 1955, or such as the crisis of northern Iraq and the Kurdish problem and its demand for secession.
    • As for crises of a non-hostile nature, they are natural disasters that affect the country, such as floods, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, in addition to serious collisions and drownings, and large fires that threaten property and crops.

2. In terms of type: the crisis is classified in terms of type into four^[34] sections.

A. Political crisis: It is the crisis that arises as a result of backwardness or deficiency in the political system, which leads to the emergence of crises such as: the crisis of legitimacy, the crisis of participation, and the crisis of identity.

B. Economic crisis: crises that arise as a result of an imbalance or imbalance in the structural structure of the national economy, and then we talk about crises that underdeveloped structural structure and productive conditions such as the failure of production to provide the need for consumption and the increasing trade deficit in the balance of payments and labor crises such as unemployment^[35].

C. Military crisis: It is either internal, such as an attempt to carry out a coup within the state to change or modify the system of government; the military crisis may be external, such as military build-up on the borders between two countries, which results in an escalation of tension between them and may lead to war, and the military crisis during the conduct of the war itself may be such as making a rapid breakthrough in the ranks of enemies, which confuses him and loses his balance and creates a crisis in his leadership, which requires a bold and quick decision or the emergence of The enemy in an unexpected place from the other side or the entry of an actor or a new party in the existing war, such as China’s entry into the Korean War in October 1950, was a crisis for the United States, or the exit of one party from the war represented a crisis for the rest of the parties, such as France’s exit from the war against Germany in June 1940, which causeda crisis for Britain and the Allies.^([36])

D. Social crisis: This type of crisis is internal only, as it is carried out by a certain group of pressure groups within society, in addition to the disturbances provoked by extremist religious groups.^(([37]

Section II

Analysis of strategies for dealing with crises in the international context.

Analysis of strategies to deal with international crises is a crucial step to ensure an effective response to the challenges that countries may face at the global level, in this section, the focus will be on three basic aspects: first, the axes  of strategic analysis that help identify the factors affecting the crisis, and second, the stages of strategic analysis that clarify how to make appropriate strategic decisions at various stages of the crisis. Finally, models Strategic analysis that provides methods and frameworks for analyzing crises and dealing with them in an organized and effective manner.

First: Axes of strategic analysis of international crises:

International crises are one of the rare events that attract the attention of world public opinion, as they may exceed the limits of the traditional interests of societies towards foreign policy and international relations, which reflects their great impact in directing public interests towards strategic issues beyond the boundaries of local government on the one hand, and from On the other hand, crises are a fundamental challenge to the political wisdom and courage of decision-makers, and represent an accurate test of the ability of the strategic analyst to anticipate the repercussions of the events resulting from them, and from this point of view, and in light of the fact that crises constitute a latent and continuous situation in the international system, this imposes the need to develop means and methods of strategic analysis capable of adapting to the nature of crises and dealing with them effectively, and strategic analysis of international crises requires an in-depth study of the factors of the crisis and its repercussions, as the reproduction of crises is linked to a continuous interactive relationship. Between the variables and circumstances affecting the course of the crisis, and in this context, the primary role of the strategic analyst is to diagnose the crisis, analyze its various elements and explain its motives, by identifying the parties involved in the crisis and assessing its future effects, andthe aim of this analysis is to explore possible scenarios of the crisis, which provides decision-makers with the necessary tools to deal with the crisis and make appropriate decisions^[38], including the strategic analysis process Crises have a number of main axes, including: ^[39])

1. Analysis of correlation and regression relationships: to examine the variables and constants of crisis factors, which helps determine how some of them affect each other.
2. Analysis of the causes of tension: This analysis is done by collecting and analyzing information related to the crisis, while determining the levels of tension that the crisis has reached.
3. Strength analysis of the parties involved: This analysis includes studying the resources and capabilities available to the parties involved in the crisis, with the aim of identifying the actors and the ability to influence the course of events.
4. Analysis of the nature of the risk and the costs of the continuation of the crisis: This assessment requires an analysis of the nature of the threats posed by the crisis, as well as an estimate of the costs of continuing the crisis, whether at the regional or international level.^([40])

Second: Stages of strategic analysis of international crises:

According to some specialists, comprehensive strategic analysis usually includes three main successive stages^[41]:

• Analysis of the current situation: The purpose of the analysis of the current situation is to provide a “picture” of the issue, problem or organization, and there are some important questions that are usually addressed: What is the issue or problem? Who leads or controls the organization? How successful is the organization? What changes are occurring in it that will affect its work? What are the surrounding internal and external factors? What is the current strategy? How successful is it?
• Current Situation Assessment (Fulcrum): The purpose of the fulcrum is to compile the analysis of the current situation into an assessment of the current and future expected performance, and should also consider the overall direction of a new strategic initiative, if the current situation is suboptimal, the important questions here are: How well does the organization perform from a broad strategic perspective? Is the current strategy too successful, successful, insufficient or catastrophic? What is expected to happen to overall performance if the current strategy continues? If not If the strategy is successful, what is the source or sources of the problem? In which broad strategic direction should the state or institution move? When dealing with these issues, the analyst also needs to think ahead: what kind of selection method will be used to evaluate strategic alternatives at the solution analysis stage?
• Solution analysis: If the evaluation indicates a change in strategy or improvement, the solution analysis determines the recommended strategic and strategic options (and possibly the analysis of the implementation of the recommended strategy), the important questions here are: What strategic alternatives are likely to be superior? What should be the strategic objectives of the state or institution? Are there goals that should be used to evaluate strategic alternatives? What is the preferred alternative? How sensitive is the choice between alternatives to different scenarios or “countries of the world”?

Others believe that strategic analysis includes four consecutive phases^[42]:

1. Environmental analysis: It is to study the internal and external environments associated with the problem in detail, and accordingly a set of decisions are taken.
2. Strategic formulation: It is the development of appropriate formulas based on the results reached in the analysis step, in order to prepare action plans and identify the resources available to start implementation.
3. Implementation: It is the actual application of the strategy adopted in the next stage within the work environment, which aims to make all internal and external components adapt to it, thus facilitating the implementation of the work associated with it.
4. Evaluation: It is to ensure the success of the implementation of the strategy and that it is on the right track and allocated to it, and the evaluation contributes to correcting any mistakes that occurred and working to find appropriate solutions to them.

Third: Models of strategic analysis of international crises:

David Hanger and Thomas Wheelen presented a set of models of measurement tools in strategic analysis grouped according to the levels of the analysis environment (as follows^[43]) :⁾

1. Macro Environment Analysis Tools (SWOT) :) This tool is an important and useful means in analyzing the general situation of the state, by balancing the elements of strength and weakness in the internal environment, and opportunities and threats in the external environment, and this tool clarifies  the  relationship between internal and external assessments, and includes strengths, skills and preparations that help the state to outperform other international units in the climate  of international competition.

The weaknesses are related to the lack of skills and capabilities compared to the capabilities of competing international units, while the opportunities are represented by favorable conditions in the external environment with a positive impact on the state, and the opposite of these opportunities are the threats represented by unfavorable changes in the environment that negatively affect the performance of the state, that is, the strengths and weaknesses are usually internal to the state, while the opportunities and threats are usually external.

When using macro-environment analysis tools, the following must be ensured:^[44]))

• • • Use only specific verifiable data.
    • Internal and external factors are prioritized so that the most important factors are focused, and this should include a risk assessment to ensure that high-risk or high-impact threats and opportunities are clearly identified and addressed as a matter of priority.
    • The issues identified later in the strategy formation process are retained.
    • No single tool is likely to be completely exhaustive, so a combination of option-generating tools should be used.

2. External environment analysis tools: It includes several tools, including (PEST) analysis, and analysis (mission environment variables), for (PEST) analysis, it includes the analysis of the variables of the general environment represented by variables: political, legal, economic, social and cultural, and technical variables, and these variables (PEST) can be classified as opportunities or threats in the analysis (SWOT), as it is often useful to complete the analysis (PEST) before completing the analysis (SWOT), while the analysis of (task environment variables) is done by preparing individual reports on all variables of this environment and then summarizing the information in the form of strategic factors sent to senior management for adoption in decision-making.^[45]))
3. Internal environment analysis tools: Internal environment analysis tools are represented by several main entrances, which are as follows:

• • • Resource dependence approach: This approach focuses on two important aspects: what resources are available, and the resources required to implement the strategy, and these resources are: material, human, financial, and intangible resources.^[46]))
    • Introduction to value chain analysis: This analysis focuses on the functions (activities) of the state that create value for its performance or behavior, starting from the exploitation of its resources and natural resources such as raw materials through a series of activities to raise performance and improve value, and in the analysis, the activities of the institution under analysis are divided into separate groups of activities that add value, and the state can evaluate its internal capabilities more effectively by identifying and examining each of these activities, and each of these activities is a source of competitive value.^([47])
    • Analysis of functional resources: It is related to the study of the organizational structures of the state and their types, assessing the strengths and weaknesses, and focusing on organizational culture as a set of values and traditions that are accepted and patterns of behavior adopted by individuals and managers in any institution or organizational structure.^[48]))
    • Strategic auditing: It is related to examining and evaluating the organization’s operations and operational activities that affect the strategic management process, and David Fred points out that strategic auditing can be performed by three groups: external auditors, government auditors, and internal auditors.^([49])

From the foregoing, we conclude that strategic analysis is of great importance in the process of strategic management of the state, as it is the main tool to identify the strategic elements in the internal and external environments of the state, so it makes an accurate diagnosis of the strengths, weaknesses, available opportunities and latent risks, which limit the state’s ability to strategically manage its various institutions, enabling it to make optimal use of the available strengths and opportunities, and overcome the elements of weakness and risks inherent at the same time in the internal and external environments, which It avoids the risks of misperception and failed management and the resulting waste of national resources and lack of exploitation, and reflects as a result on the efficiency of the state’s performance and management of its institutions at the internal level, and its performance, movement and position at the regional and international levels.

 

THE END

First: Conclusions:

1. Strategic analysis is an essential tool to understand international crises in depth, by analyzing the political, economic, and social environment, risks can be identified and more effective solutions to crises provided.
2. International crises mutually affect internal factors (such as national policies) and external factors (such as international relations and global economic challenges), and strategic analysis must take these factors into account in an integrated manner to provide a clear vision on how to deal with the crisis.
3. In international crisis management, leadership plays a pivotal role in making critical and quick decisions, strategic analysis helps determine the available options, but the ability to make decisions quickly and effectively is what distinguishes success in crisis management.
4. The importance of technology and means of communication in managing international crises is increasing, as modern technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence analysis play a prominent role in improving the understanding of the crisis and the response of countries and organizations to it.
5. International crises often require a collective response from states and international organizations, and coordination between different parties is crucial in finding sustainable and effective solutions.

Second: Recommendations:

1. Governments and international organizations should strengthen their capacity to deal with crises by building institutions specialized in strategic analysis and crisis management, in addition to training human resources on how to make decisions in critical times.
2. It is recommended to invest in the development of artificial intelligence and data analysis technologies that contribute to faster crisis identification and innovative solutions.
3. It is advisable to strengthen cooperation between countries and international organizations in the field of strategic analysis, through the establishment of common platforms for the exchange of information and views on crises, which contributes to improving coordination and making informed decisions.
4. It is essential that states and international organizations develop strategies to deal with crises before they occur, develop contingency plans that include multiple scenarios and allocate the necessary resources.
5. The transparency of information exchanged with the public during crises should be enhanced, through public awareness, the negative psychological and social effects of crises can be minimized, contributing to reducing chaos and causing panic.

 

MARGINS

 [1]Zakaria Mutlak Al-Douri, Strategic Management: Concepts, Processes and Case Studies, National Library, Dar Al-Kutub and Documents, Iraq, 2010, p. 107.

[2] Sanaa Abdel Karim Al-Khannaq, Manifestations of Strategic Performance and Competitive Advantage, International Practical Conference on the Outstanding Performance of Organizations and Governments, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Ouargla, Algeria, 2010, p. 27.

Falah[3] Hassan Addai Al-Husseini, Strategic Management, Concepts, Approaches, Contemporary Operations, Dar Wael for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, 2006, p. 120

[4] Ahmed Atallah, Strategic Planning and Strategic Management, Concepts, Theories and Applied Cases, Dar Madlawi for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, 1996, p. 67.

[5] Abdelmalek Mazhouda, A Reading of Strategic Analysis Tools in the Light of the New Paradigms of Strategic Management, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, No. 12, University of Batna, Algeria, 2005, p. 197.

Nima[6] Abbas Al-Khafaji, Strategic Management, Approaches, Concepts and Operations, Dar Al-Thaqafa for Publishing, 2nd Edition, Amman, 2010, p. 105.

[7]Issa Huraish, Strategic Management, Al-Warraq Publishing, 1st Edition, Amman, 2011, p. 64.

[8]Maher Ahmed, Director’s Step-by-Step Guide to Strategic Management, University House, Alexandria, 1990, p. 132.

[9]Iyad Ali Yahya Al-Dajani, The Reality of Strategic Planning at the Islamic University in the Light of Quality Standards, Unpublished Master’s Thesis, Islamic University, Gaza, 2006, p. 49.

Omri[10] Sami, The Effectiveness of Human Resources Planning in the Light of Strategic Planning, unpublished master’s thesis, Mohamed Boudiaf University in Messila, Algeria, 2007, p. 33.

[11]Ahmed Atallah, op. cit., p. 70.

[12]Muhammad Mustafa Al-Sanhouri, Strategic Management, Dar Al-Fikr Al-Jamia, Baghdad, 2013, p. 145

[13] Iyad Ali Yahya al-Dajani, op. cit., p. 50.

[14] Maher Ahmed, op. cit., p. 138.

[15] Abd al-Malik Mazhouda, op. cit., p. 200.

[16]Ahmed Youssef Kitan, The Importance of Strategic Analysis in the Strategic Management Process of the State, Department of Economic Studies, Al-Nahrain Center for Strategic Studies, 2018, https://alnahrain.iq/post/p. 273, (visit date 15/2/2025).

[17] Younis Ibrahim Haidar, Strategic Analysis: Methods, Models and Tools, Dar Al-Rida Publishing, Damascus, 2005, p. 33.

[18] Ibid., p. 34.

[19]Muhammad Musa Mahmoud and Crisis Management Requirements, University of Jordan, Comprehensive Multidisciplinary Electronic Journal, Issue 10, 2020, p. 10.

[20] Ghassan Al-Omari and Salwa Al-Samarrai, Strategic Information Systems, Dar Al-Masirah, 2nd Edition, Amman, 2010, p. 36.

[21] Ibn Manzur, Lisan al-Arab, Dar Sader, 3rd Edition, Beirut, 1993, p. 16.

[22] Wael Muhammad Ismail, The Theory of International Crisis Management, Baghdad, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Baghdad, 2016, p. 16.

[23]Ethar Abdul Hadi Muhammad, Crisis Management Strategy: A Conceptual Framing according to the Islamic Perspective, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 64, 2011, p. 49.

[24] Doaa Abdul Hussein Rasan, United States Department of International Crises, The War on Terrorism as a Model, Master’s Thesis, College of Political Science, Al-Mustansiriya University, Baghdad, 2015, p. 8.

[25] Alawi Mustafa, Definition of the Phenomenon of the International Crisis, Arab Strategic Thought, Lebanon, No. 16, 1987, p. 157.

[26] Abdel Azim Mahmoud Hanafi, Revolution and Legitimacy, Factors of the Fall of the Syrian Regime 1963-2013, Dar Al-Nahda Al-Arabiya, Lebanon, 2016, p. 72.

[27] Mohamed Nasr Muhanna, Crisis Management, University Youth Foundation, Egypt, 2004, p. 244.

Mohamed[28] Salah Salem, Crisis and Disaster Management between Theoretical Concept and Scientific Application, First Edition, Cairo: Human and Social Studies and Research, Egypt, 2005, p. 9.

[29]Nasser Abdullah Awan, The International Crisis and its Interactions, “A Theoretical Study”, research published in the Journal of Bani Walid University for Humanities and Applied Sciences, Volume IX, First Issue, 2024, p. 260.

[30] Ibid., p. 260.

[31] Zuhair Naim, The Role of Human Resources Management in Crisis Management, Second Annual Conference on Crisis and Disaster Management, Ain Shams University, Cairo, 1978, p. 6.

[32]Muhammad Ismail, International Crisis Management Theory, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Baghdad, 2016, p. 18.

[33] Al-Tayeb Al-Daoudi, The Impact of Analysis of the External and Internal Environment in the Formulation of Strategy, Al-Researcher Magazine, No. 5, 2007, p. 55.

[34]Sameh Ahmed Zaki Al-Hanafi, Crisis Management, Journal of Financial and Business Research, Issue Two, Part Two, 2017, p. 9.

[35] Al-Sayed Bahnasy, Media and International Crisis Management, Alam Al-Kutub Publishing, Egypt, 2010, p. 33.

[36] Al-Tayeb Al-Daoudi, op. cit., p. 57.

[37] Mr. Bahnasi, op. cit., p. 34.

[38]Majeed Al-Karkhi, Strategic Planning: A Theoretical and Applied Presentation, Dar Al-Minhaj Publishing, Jordan, 2009, p. 168.

[39] Sameh Ahmed Zaki al-Hanafi, op. cit., p. 15.

[40] Rashad Al-Hamalawi, Planning to Face Crises, Ain Al-Shams Library, Egypt, 1990, p. 21.

[41] Anthony E. Boardman & Aidan R. Vining, “A framework for Comprehensive Strategic Analysis”, Journal of Strategic Management Education, Vol.1, Issue.2, Senate Hall Ltd., Dublin, Irland, June 2003, p.1.

 [42]Majd Khader, “Strategic Analysis Tools”, articles, topic, 2016, research published on the website: http://mawdoo3.com, visit date (14/2/2025).

[43]David J. Hunger & Thomas L. Wheelen, “Strategic Management”, Addison Wesley Longman Inc., 6th ed., USA, 1998, p.58-102.

[44]Jim Downy, “Strategic Analysis Tools”, Topic Gateway Series, No.34, The Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, London, 2007, p.6.

[45]Enaam Mohsen Hassan, The Role of Strategic Analysis to Dimensions of the Institutional Control Environment in the Continuity of the Organization and Avoiding Crises, Unpublished Research, Al-Isra Private University, Amman, 2009, p. 13.

[46] Hassan Ali Al-Zubi, Assessing Strategic Opportunities and Threats in the Jordanian Marketing Environment – An Applied Study in Joint Stock Tourism Companies, Jordanian Journal of Business Administration, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2005, pp. 77-97.

[47] Majid al-Karkhi, op. cit., p. 175.

[48] Stephen Haynes, Successful Strategic Planning, 3rd Edition, translated by Rifai Mohamed and Sayed Abdel Motaal, Dar Al-Farouk for Publishing and Distribution, Arab Republic of Egypt, Cairo, 2007, p. 66.

[49]Fred R. David, “Strategic Management Concept & Cases”, prentice Hall international Inc., 8th ed., New Jersey, 2001, p.313.

 

LIST OF SOURCES

First: Arabic Sources:

1. Ibn Manzur, Lisan al-Arab, Dar Sader, third edition, Beirut, 1993.
2. Ahmed Atallah, Strategic Planning and Strategic Management, Concepts, Theories and Applied Cases, Dar Medlawi for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, 1996.
3. Ahmed Youssef Kitan, The Importance of Strategic Analysis in the Strategic Management Process of the State, Department of Economic Studies, Al-Nahrain Center for Strategic Studies, 2018, https://alnahrain.iq/post/p. 273, (date of visit 15/2/2025).
4. Enaam Mohsen Hassan, The Role of Strategic Analysis to Dimensions of the Institutional Control Environment in the Continuity of the Organization and Avoiding Crises, Unpublished Research, Isra Private University, Amman, 2009.
5. Iyad Ali Yahya Al-Dajani, The Reality of Strategic Planning at the Islamic University in the Light of Quality Standards, Unpublished Master Thesis, Islamic University, Gaza, 2006.
6. Ithar Abdulhadi Mohamed, Crisis Management Strategy: A Conceptual Framing According to the Islamic Perspective, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 64, 2011.
7. Hassan Ali Al-Zoubi, Assessing Strategic Opportunities and Threats in the Jordanian Marketing Environment – An Applied Study in Joint Stock Tourism Companies, The Jordanian Journal of Business Administration, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2005.
8. Doaa Abdul Hussein Rasen, The United States of America Management of International Crises, The War on Terrorism as a Model, Master’s Thesis, College of Political Science, Al-Mustansiriya University, Baghdad, 2015.
9. Rashad Al-Hamalawy, Crisis Planning, Ain Shams Library, Egypt, 1990.
10. Zakaria Mutlaq Al-Douri, Strategic Management: Concepts, Processes and Case Studies, National Library, Dar Al-Kutub and Documents, Iraq, 2010.
11. Zuhair Naim, The Role of Human Resources Management in Crisis Management, Second Annual Conference on Crisis and Disaster Management, Ain Shams University, Cairo, 1978.
12. Sameh Ahmed Zaki Al-Hanafi, Crisis Management, Journal of Financial and Business Research, Issue Two, Part Two, 2017.
13. Stephen Haynes, Successful Strategic Planning, 3rd Edition, translated by Rifai Mohamed and Sayed Abdel Motaal, Dar Al-Farouk for Publishing and Distribution, Arab Republic of Egypt, Cairo, 2007.
14. Sanaa Abdel Karim Al-Khannaq, Manifestations of Strategic Performance and Competitive Advantage, International Practical Conference on the Outstanding Performance of Organizations and Governments, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Ouargla, Algeria, 2010.
15. Bahnasy, Media and International Crisis Management, World of Books for Publishing, Egypt, 2010.
16. Tayeb Daoudi, The Impact of Analysis of the External and Internal Environment on Strategy Formulation, Researcher Magazine, No. 5, 2007.
17. Abdel Azim Mahmoud Hanafi, Revolution and Legitimacy, Factors of the Fall of the Syrian Regime 1963-2013, Dar Al-Nahda Al-Arabiya, Lebanon, 2016.
18. Abdelmalek Mazhouda, A Reading of Strategic Analysis Tools in the Light of the New Paradigms of Strategic Management, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, No. 12, University of Batna, Algeria, 2005.
19. Alawi Mustafa, Definition of the International Crisis Phenomenon, Lebanon: Arab Strategic Thought, No. 16, 1987.
20. Omri Sami, The Effectiveness of Human Resources Planning in the Light of Strategic Planning, Unpublished Master’s Thesis, Mohamed Boudiaf University in Messila, Algeria, 2007.
21. Issa Harish, Strategic Management, Al-Warraq Publishing, 1st Edition, 2011.
22. Ghassan Al-Omari and Salwa Al-Samarrai, Strategic Information Systems, Dar Al-Masirah, 2nd Edition, 2010.
23. Falah Hassan Addai Al-Husseini, Strategic Management, Concepts, Approaches, Contemporary Operations, Dar Wael for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, 2006.
24. Maher Ahmed, Manager’s Guide Step by Step in Strategic Management, University House, Alexandria, 1990.
25. Majd Khader, “Strategic Analysis Tools”, articles, topic, 2016, research published on the website: http://mawdoo3.com, last visited (14/2/2025).
26. Majeed Al-Karkhi, Strategic Planning: A Theoretical and Applied Presentation, Dar Al-Minhaj Publishing, Jordan, 2009.
27. Muhammad Ismail, International Crisis Management Theory, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Baghdad, 2016.
28. Mohamed Salah Salem, Crisis and Disaster Management between Theoretical Concept and Scientific Application, First Edition, Cairo: For Human and Social Studies and Research, Egypt, 2005.
29. Muhammad Mustafa Al-Sanhouri, Strategic Management, Dar Al-Fikr Al-Jamia, Baghdad, 2013.
30. Muhammad Musa Mahmoud, Crisis Management Requirements, University of Jordan, Comprehensive Multidisciplinary Electronic Journal, Issue 10, 2020.
31. Mohamed Nasr Muhanna, Crisis Management, University Youth Foundation, Egypt, 2004.
32. Nasser Abdullah Awan, The International Crisis and its Interactions: A Theoretical Study, research published in Bani Walid University Journal for Humanities and Applied Sciences, Volume IX, Issue One, 2024.
33. Nima Abbas Al-Khafaji, Strategic Management, Approaches, Concepts and Processes, Dar Al-Thaqafa for Publishing, Amman, 2nd Edition, 2010.
34. Wael Muhammad Ismail, The Theory of International Crisis Management, Baghdad, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Baghdad, 2016.
35. Younis Ibrahim Haidar, Strategic Analysis: Its Methods, Models and Tools, Dar Al-Rida Publishing, Damascus, 2005.

Second: Foreign Sources :

1. Anthony E. Boardman & Aidan R. Vining, “A framework for Comprehensive Strategic Analysis”, Journal of Strategic Management Education, Vol.1, Issue.2, Senate Hall Ltd., Dublin, Irland, June 2003, p.1.
2. Fred R. David, “Strategic Management Concept & Cases”, prentice Hall international Inc., 8th ed., New Jersey, 2001, p.313.
3. Jim Downy, “Strategic Analysis Tools”, Topic Gateway Series, No.34, The Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, London, 2007, p.6.
4. David J. Hunger & Thomas L. Wheelen, “Strategic Management”, Addison Wesley Longman Inc., 6th ed., USA, 1998, p.58-102