CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5)
25 April 2025

Introduction:

Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating domestic and international challenges and maintaining a theocratic system under the Supreme Leader’s unchallenged authority. Iran balances regional dominance with internal stability amid Israel’s strikes on its proxies, nuclear brinkmanship, and a shifting U.S. policy landscape going into a new administration in 2025. Yet, recent developments, such as the collapse of parts of Iran’s “Shia Crescent,” their weakened currency, and escalating regional tensions, signal potential shifts.

This paper applies Carl von Clausewitz’s trinity concept, government, military, and people, to examine the potential for change in Iran, with a focus on implications for USCENTCOM.

The Iranian government, led by the Supreme Leader and elected officials, sets ideological and policy direction. The military, dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), ensures regime security and wields economic power. The people, fueled by economic grievances and youthful energy, represent a latent force for upheaval. Shifts in this triad could reshape Iran’s trajectory, challenging USCENTCOM’s mission to deter Iran, counter its proxies, and improve regional stability. This analysis explores the strategic context, key actors, potential drivers of change, and scenarios to inform USCENTCOM’s strategy.

Key Points:

• The Gaza conflict has disrupted Middle East stability and strained U.S. deterrence posture amid U.S. policy uncertainty during administration transition.
• Iran’s stability hinges on the interplay of its trinity, a rigid theocratic government, a dominant IRGC ensuring regime security, and a youthful, discontented populace, with shifts in any element potentially destabilizing the system.
• Potential future scenarios for Iran include economic fallout, succession debates, U.S./Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, protests, and IRGC crackdowns.
• Kinetic action on Iran could have grave repercussions for the region. A unified approach may be the best option to control Iran’s nuclear ambition.

Read the complete paper here.

View other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers here.