Calculated Restraint: Gulf Strategy in the Iran Conflict
May 26, 2026 2026-05-26 19:42Calculated Restraint: Gulf Strategy in the Iran Conflict
Calculated Restraint: Gulf Strategy in the Iran Conflict
CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
Calculated Restraint: Gulf Strategy in the Iran Conflict
Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) – CCJ5-G-USCENTCOM
19 May 2026
Introduction:
Gulf states have refrained from publicly joining the ongoing military confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, despite being directly exposed to Iranian attacks. This restraint does not necessarily indicate military weakness. Gulf countries possess substantial conventional and advanced capabilities, including modern air forces, missile defense systems, and rapid deployment forces that would allow them to engage effectively if they chose. That said, given the significant scale and sophistication of capabilities that the Iranian regime has diverted national resources to build up, any effective response would have to be concerted and multilateral. Gulf states’ decisions reflect a multi-layered strategic calculation shaped by risk exposure, alliance uncertainty, asymmetric warfare realities, domestic legitimacy concerns, and shifting regional power structures.
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The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.
