By : MAJ Naoki Tajiri, Japan Ground Self-defense Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 26 May 2021 Introduction: Central Asian political stability and security are of great importance to China. Therefore, China seeks to strengthen regional border controls, lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and contribute to stabilizing Read More >
CENTCOM CSAG Papers
Afghanistan Security Future and Impact on Central Asia
By: CDR Azamat Murzabekov, Kazakhstan Navy, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 26 May 2021 Introduction: The land that is now Afghanistan has a long history of domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internal warring factions. At the gateway between Asia and Europe, this land was conquered by Read More >
One-Year into the COVID-19 Pandemic in Yemen: An Opportunity to Refocus Foreign Powers’ Attention and End a War?
By: LtCol Michael von Normann, German Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 14 June 2021 Introduction: More than six years into the Saudi-led intervention, the situation in Yemen is no longer a concern to Yemenis alone. This conflict is a clear example of the permanent struggle between regional Read More >
Will Beijing Expand in the Middle East at Washington’s Expense?
By: : LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 04 June 2021 Introduction: Backed by one of the fastest growing economies in the world, China has publicly announced its desire to become a superpower and overtake the US by 2049. To achieve this goal, Read More >
Is China Turning the Table to Fuel the Conflict over Kashmir?
By: LTC Youngsuk Lee, Republic of Korea Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 04 June 2021 Introduction: The deadliest clash between Chinese and Indian armies in Galwan valley occurred on June 15th 2020. As a result, 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers were killed and dozens wounded. This Read More >
Likelihood of Ethnic Cross-border Tensions in Iran
By: LTC Arjen Wassink, NLD Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 04 June 2021 Introduction: For centuries, cross-border tensions have escalated the risk of crises becoming wars. The war in Iraq showed how complicated these tensions can be and what risks they entail. The current crisis in the Read More >
Strategic Estimate 2021
By Combined Strategic Analysis Group – CCJ5-G – USCENTCOM May 2021 Introduction: USCENTCOM CCJ5 Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) produces a yearly, forward looking AOR Strategic Estimate for Commander USCENTCOM and staff. This Estimate is the 48th since 2003. The previous Estimate was released on 4 May 2020. The May 2021 Estimate is current as Read More >
Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?
By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >
President Al-Sisi Puts Egypt Back on its Feet
By LTC Sami Alshehri, Saudi Arabian Military, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 30 Mar 2021 Introduction: As some have observed, the Muslim Brotherhood government that followed the 2011 revolution completely failed and created a power vacuum. However, Brotherhood rule in Egypt effectively ended the utopian idea that political Read More >
Coherency of EU Foreign Policies towards the USCENTCOM AOR
By LtCol Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 19 Mar 2021 Introduction: Within the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), the European Union (EU) policies towards Central and South Asia, and the Middle East are widely different and lack a comprehensive approach. While the EU published Read More >