Examining Theater Realities: Informing CENTCOM’s Planning
February 2, 2026 2026-02-02 19:22Examining Theater Realities: Informing CENTCOM’s Planning
Examining Theater Realities: Informing CENTCOM’s Planning
CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) – CCJ5-G-USCENTCOM
23 January 2026
Introduction:
The publication of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) provides an updated strategic context for USCENTCOM. While the NSS offers broad national guidance, the complexity of the command’s operational environment continues to be characterized by immediate and persistent challenges. These range from support to the 20 Point Plan to end the Gaza conflict, continued tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the persistent and enduring threat of violent extremist organizations (VEOs), and pervasive encroachment in the region by China.
This paper presents the outcome of CSAG analysis of the events, factors, and drivers that result in ten emerging regional trends. Presented within a DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economy) framework, this analysis evaluates the associated risks and opportunities to inform USCENTCOM’s planning.
The Identified Trends:
Diplomatic Domain
- New Way of Diplomacy
- Changing Dynamic of Power
Information
- Utilization of Cyber and AI to Supercharge Instability
- Weaponized Information
- Upscaled Extremist Recruitment Online
Military
- From U.S. Security Guarantor to Security Integrator
- Underestimated Threats
- Changing Way of Warfare and Warfighting
Economy
- Competitive Multipolar Economic Order
- Fragmented Energy Transition & Economic Realignment
View other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers here.
The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.
