CSAG Strategy Paper: High Stakes on High Ground: The Golan Heights, a Zero-sum Game for Regional Dominance

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
Lt Col Richard Pecinka, CZE AF (CSAG/CCJ5), LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5), LTC Ivan Puhalo, HRV Army (CSAG/CCJ5), and MAJ Vasile Nodis, ROU AF (CSAG/CCJ5)
20 November 2024

 

Introduction:

The Golan Heights, a hilly 460 square mile (1,200 square kilometer) strategically vital plateau, was seized by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War. Despite Syria’s attempt to reclaim the territory in the 1973 conflict, Israel maintained control and unilaterally annexed it in 1981. This annexation, however, lacks international recognition, with Syria continuing to demand the territory’s return. Since the 1974 armistice between Israel and Syria and the deployment of UN personnel, the Golan Heights has remained relatively stable. However, the Golan’s strategic importance has not diminished and has recently garnered renewed attention from various actors. The area’s significance has been underscored by recent military activities and the looming of a full-scale conflict after recent cross border incursions of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) into Lebanon.

 

Key Points:

  • The Golan Heights holds profound historical significance and serves critical tactical and strategic purpose.
  • Since Israel’s unilateral annexation of the Golan Heights, the region is generally viewed as stable.
  • Various actors possess diverse interests, positions, and perspectives regarding the historical context and future of the Golan Heights.
  • Recent military activity and the growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have significantly increased the risk of transforming the Golan Heights into a volatile flashpoint.

 

Read the complete paper here.

View other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers here.

 

The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.