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The Syrian Situation and its Impacts on Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons

By: LTC Marco PRANZO, ITA Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In 2020 the conflict in Syria was further exacerbated by the country’s worst economic crisis since 2011, international sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In this challenging socio-economic situation, a so-called oligopoly, encompassing Syrian and non-Syrian entities has formed. For years, the entities that Read More >

US Withdrawal from Iraq and Conditions that Enabled ISIS’ Spread: 2011 and 2021 Comparison

By: LTC Octavian Dorobantu, ROU Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In early 2019, the ISIS caliphate was declared “defeated” after losing the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani. However, in 2020, a significant growth in IS attacks has been witnessed in their traditional heartlands of Syria and Iraq, as well as an increasing presence in Read More >

Syria Next

By: Matthew Wollen, F GS-13 USAF AFSOC OC/SPDP 14 June 2021   Introduction Throughout the decades following WWII, the U.S. was the dominant economic, political, and military influencer in the Middle East.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran all benefitted from one form of U.S. assistance or another.  No other Read More >

Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?

By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >

Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees in a Time of Pandemic – A Global Challenge

  By COL Arcangelo Moro, Italian Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 24 Aug 2020 Summary: Problems facing IDPs include gender-based violence, reduced access to food and healthcare, and increased social tensions. In Syria, the ongoing conflict has created a massive refugee crisis, and the situation remains a Read More >

Russian “Military Police” in Syria – A Successful Information Operation?

  By Lieutenant Colonel Andrii Melnyk, Ukrainian Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 17 July 2020 Summary: Russia is using trained Military Police (MP) in Syria—compromised of personnel with similar religious views and ethnic origins as the Syrian population—who act as “Russian peacekeepers” to achieve strategic objectives. Russian Read More >

COVID-19: Health and Economic Crises

بالعربية Pусский Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, NESA Since mid-February, people in the NESA region and around the world have been suffering from two overlapping crises – a health crisis and an economic one. Turkey and Iran have had the largest number of infected cases, but the virus has not spared any country in the region or Read More >

A Double Humanitarian Crisis in Syria

بالعربية Pусский Dr. Michael Sharnoff, NESA Center After nine years of civil war, Syria has become a failing state with over half a million Syrians killed and 13 million displaced. The U.N. estimates restructuring efforts will cost over $300 billion. Moreover, Assad’s government does not exercise control over all of its territory. Pockets of political Read More >