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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Some of its Implications on the USCENTCOM’s AOR and Beyond

By: CDR Hubert MROZ, POL Navy, CSAG CCJ5 5 August 2022 Overview: In many ways, the world will no longer be the same as it was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Paradoxically, the region where the effects of the war are most felt and capable of bringing about the greatest changes is not Europe, Read More >

UK Withdrawal in the 1970s and Reduction of US Military Footprint in 2021: A Comparison

By: LCDR Stipe Skelin, HRV Navy, CSAG CCJ5 22 June 2022 Overview: This document proposes through the study of a historical case – the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Middle East (ME) in the 1970s – to establish a comparison with the continuous reduction of the US footprint. The political, financial, and military Read More >

Executive Seminar: Conflict Beyond Evolving Warfare

From 31 January – 11 February 2022, the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA Center) hosted a virtual Executive Seminar on “Conflict Beyond Evolving Warfare.” Course Director NESA Center Associate Professor David Des Roches welcomed the group and started the seminar, followed by NESA Center Director LTG Terry A. Wolff, USA (Ret.) Read More >

The Syrian Situation and its Impacts on Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons

By: LTC Marco PRANZO, ITA Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In 2020 the conflict in Syria was further exacerbated by the country’s worst economic crisis since 2011, international sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In this challenging socio-economic situation, a so-called oligopoly, encompassing Syrian and non-Syrian entities has formed. For years, the entities that Read More >

US Withdrawal from Iraq and Conditions that Enabled ISIS’ Spread: 2011 and 2021 Comparison

By: LTC Octavian Dorobantu, ROU Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In early 2019, the ISIS caliphate was declared “defeated” after losing the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani. However, in 2020, a significant growth in IS attacks has been witnessed in their traditional heartlands of Syria and Iraq, as well as an increasing presence in Read More >

Syria Next

By: Matthew Wollen, F GS-13 USAF AFSOC OC/SPDP 14 June 2021   Introduction Throughout the decades following WWII, the U.S. was the dominant economic, political, and military influencer in the Middle East.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran all benefitted from one form of U.S. assistance or another.  No other Read More >

Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?

By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >

Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees in a Time of Pandemic – A Global Challenge

  By COL Arcangelo Moro, Italian Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 24 Aug 2020 Summary: Problems facing IDPs include gender-based violence, reduced access to food and healthcare, and increased social tensions. In Syria, the ongoing conflict has created a massive refugee crisis, and the situation remains a Read More >