CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5)
12 June 2025

Introduction:

The February 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report reveals that Iran has intensified its nuclear program, openly violated prior agreements, and severely restricted IAEA monitoring. The IAEA notes that, “the significantly increased production and accumulation of high-enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern.”

Iran claims its enrichment activities are for peaceful purposes, asserting their legitimacy under international law. However, this claim is undermined by Iran’s lack of transparency, its violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the production of high-enriched uranium far exceeding civilian needs, raising doubts about its intentions.

As the JCPOA snapback mechanism nears expiration in 2025, the opportunity to reimpose strict UN sanctions on Iran is fading. At the same time, the U.S. is negotiating with Iran to limit its nuclear ambitions, while Israel’s warnings of potential military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heighten tensions.

With Iran closer than ever to developing a nuclear weapon, this convergence of expiring sanctions, ongoing diplomacy, and rising threats creates a critical moment that can lead to multiple scenarios.

JCPOA Snapback: This timeline tracks the potential reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran if it violates the 2015 nuclear deal, with a key deadline from August 14, 2025 (last date to call snapback) to October 18, 2025 (termination day). Decision points include, triggering of snapback or acceptance of termination day.

U.S.-Iran Talks: This line depicts ongoing negotiations, aiming for a new nuclear agreement, with a critical 60-day target set by President Trump. Key decision points involve whether the U.S. achieves progress in nuclear negotiations, awaits the outcome of JCPOA snapback, or pursues military action.

Israel Reaction: This timeline highlights Israel’s concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, with decision points centered on whether Israel pursues military action, especially if talks fail, snapback is not called, or Iran nears weapons-grade enrichment.

Iran Reaction: This tracks Iran’s responses, such as accepting a deal with the U.S., complying with the JCPOA, retaliatory use of its proxies or the development of a nuclear weapon.

Key Points:

• The convergence of the JCPOA snapback expiration, ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the possibility of Israeli strikes places the Iran nuclear situation on the verge of a critical turning point.
• The United States, Iran, and other JCPOA participants, need to make a decision that will determine the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Each decision leads to various potential scenarios.
• Close coordination between the U.S. and the E3 (France, United Kingdom, Germany) is essential, with both sides sharing precise and up-to-date information about Iran’s nuclear progress and the status of negotiations.
• Iran has had multiple opportunities (under the JCPOA and in recent U.S.-Iran talks) to demonstrate compliance with its obligations. If Iran fails to comply, the U.S. and its allies must respond decisively to uphold nonproliferation and regional security.

Read the complete paper here.

View other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers here.