The Great Game 2.0: CENTCOM, China, and the Pakistani Pivot
June 15, 2026 2026-06-15 19:18The Great Game 2.0: CENTCOM, China, and the Pakistani Pivot
The Great Game 2.0: CENTCOM, China, and the Pakistani Pivot
CSAG STRATEGY PAPER
The Great Game 2.0: CENTCOM, China, and the Pakistani Pivot
COL Jerzy KANIA, POL Army, CSAG CCJ5, USCENTCOM
LTC Ali SAFDAR, PAK Army, CSAG CCJ5, USCENTCOM
28 May 2026
Introduction:
A new strategic contest defines the geopolitical landscape of Central and South Asia. This rivalry is the central focus of the latest U.S. National Security and Defense Strategies, which identify China as the primary “pacing challenge” for the United States. In this modern “Great Game,” the U.S. and China are the principal rivals, with Pakistan positioned as a critical pivot state. For U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Pakistan’s strategic importance has grown in direct proportion to the U.S.-China rivalry. This dynamic is particularly challenging for CENTCOM. It must recognize this elevated importance, navigate a characteristically turbulent relationship with Pakistan, while Pakistan deepens its long-standing, robust partnership with China. This is not merely a diplomatic realignment, it is a fundamental transformation, cemented by massive economic investments and a thorough military modernization driven by Chinese technology. This deepening alignment presents a clear challenge to the core objectives outlined in American strategic documents. A 2025 Pentagon report underscored this concern, noting that “China has likely also considered basing in… Pakistan” as part of its strategy to project military power globally. This is reinforced by a consistent pattern of high-level military exchanges and joint initiatives, which are officially intended to “enhance interoperability and strengthen military-to-military cooperation.” This paper argues that Islamabad’s evolving relationship with China creates a complex mixture of significant risks and potential opportunities for CENTCOM. Navigating this reality requires a pragmatic recalibration of U.S. policy. To that end, this analysis will explore the historical context of Pakistan’s foreign relations, assess the current state of its strategic partnerships, and conclude with risks and opportunities for CENTCOM in this new “Great Game.”
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The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.
