US Withdrawal from Iraq and Conditions that Enabled ISIS’ Spread: 2011 and 2021 Comparison

By: LTC Octavian Dorobantu, ROU Army, CSAG CCJ5
23 July 2021

Introduction:

In early 2019, the ISIS caliphate was declared “defeated” after losing the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani. However, in 2020, a significant growth in IS attacks has been witnessed in their traditional heartlands of Syria and Iraq, as well as an increasing presence in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, and across large parts of the African continent. Despite the loss of territory, the ideology of ISIS was not defeated. There are indications that ISIS is re-establishing itself in the Middle East.

Key Points:

• Recent ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria have demonstrated both a capacity and a willingness to retake territory, populations, and resources.
• In the wake of COVID-19 and the reduction of US forces, security gaps have grown, the prison system has weakened, there has been an uptick in sophisticated attacks, and an increased presence of foreign fighters.
• In 2010, the Obama administration made two strategic mistakes that reversed progress and sent Iraq spiraling back down the path of sectarian violence.
• There are a number of supply-and-demand factors contributing to the resurgence of the Islamic State: popularity of the group’s ideology; turmoil in the region; the incoherent and inconsistent policies enacted to counter ISIS; and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The US-led coalition has destroyed the Islamic State’s physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria, but the organization is not defeated.
• The US government must pursue a foreign policy that redirects focus away from a singularly counter-Iran mission and embraces and invests in a diplomacy-first approach.
• USCENTCOM must reinvigorate coalition partners to invest and train in the region and surge efforts to support Iraqi and Syrian partners.

Read the complete paper here.