By: LTC Arjen Wassink, NLD Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 04 June 2021 Introduction: For centuries, cross-border tensions have escalated the risk of crises becoming wars. The war in Iraq showed how complicated these tensions can be and what risks they entail. The current crisis in the Read More >
CENTCOM CSAG Papers
Strategic Estimate 2021
By Combined Strategic Analysis Group – CCJ5-G – USCENTCOM May 2021 Introduction: USCENTCOM CCJ5 Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) produces a yearly, forward looking AOR Strategic Estimate for Commander USCENTCOM and staff. This Estimate is the 48th since 2003. The previous Estimate was released on 4 May 2020. The May 2021 Estimate is current as Read More >
Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?
By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >
President Al-Sisi Puts Egypt Back on its Feet
By LTC Sami Alshehri, Saudi Arabian Military, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 30 Mar 2021 Introduction: As some have observed, the Muslim Brotherhood government that followed the 2011 revolution completely failed and created a power vacuum. However, Brotherhood rule in Egypt effectively ended the utopian idea that political Read More >
Coherency of EU Foreign Policies towards the USCENTCOM AOR
By LtCol Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 19 Mar 2021 Introduction: Within the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), the European Union (EU) policies towards Central and South Asia, and the Middle East are widely different and lack a comprehensive approach. While the EU published Read More >
From Warring Partner to Peace Broker – Impact of the New Administration’s Policy towards the War in Yemen
By: LtCol Michael von Normann, DEU A, CSAG Middle East Branch 02 Mar 2021 Introduction: In his first foreign policy speech on February 4, 2021, President Biden announced the US would end its support for the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive operations in Yemen. The new policy laid out by the President also included the suspension of Read More >
The Implications of a US Withdrawal from Iraq for USCENTCOM Priorities and Great Power Competition
By: LTC Octavian Dorobantu, ROU Army, CSAG CCJ5 24 Feb 2021 Introduction: Due to economic changes and the loss of American popular support for long wars, the Trump Administration designed a plan to withdraw troops from Iraq. If the Biden Administration were to act along the same lines, a withdrawal could cause significant harm to Read More >
Post-Maximum Pressure Campaign Rapprochement with Iran
By: Lt Col Farhan Ali, Pakistan Army, CSAG CCJ5 19 Feb 2021 Introduction: The Trump Administration criticized President Obama’s Iran policy, particularly the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Trump described the JCPOA as a poorly conceived and one-sided agreement that disproportionally benefitted Iran and allowed it to continue its malign behavior in the Read More >
The Consequences of Israeli Intervention in Syria
By: LCDR Stipe Skin, HRV Navy, CSAG CCJ5 10 Feb 2021 Introduction: Over the last five years, Israel has conducted surgical airstrikes against high value targets in Syria. This component of its “war between wars” will soon be challenged by the fielding of Iranian and Russian air defense systems. The new air defense systems are Read More >
Blacklisting the Houthis: What is the Price – What is the Gain?
By LtCol Michael von Normann, German Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group, Middle East Branch 9 Feb 2021 Introduction: On December 30, 2020, three precision-guided missiles struck Aden Airport where a plane carrying Yemeni cabinet members had just landed. The strike killed twenty-seven people and wounded over 130. Read More >