NESA Center Alumni Publication
By Saba Ghulam Nabi
21 April 2026

The term “climate change” refers to long-term changes in weather and temperature patterns. These shifts can be natural, caused by changes in the activity of the sun or large volcanic eruptions. However, since the 1800s, human activities have been the main cause of climate change, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal. The burning of these fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which act as an insulating layer, trapping heat and leading to an increasing global temperature.

Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels, along with imbalanced and unsustainable energy production and land use, has increased global warming by 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels. This has also led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, causing a very harmful and dangerous impact on both the natural system and humans globally. Each addition of warming results in increasingly severe hazards, such as heavier rainfall, heatwaves, shifting times of rain and snowfall. These changes further intensify the risks to ecosystems and human health.

South Asia is home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population, and is among the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.  This vulnerability is mainly due to the rapid melting of glaciers in the Himalayan range, which results in erratic river flows, water shortages, cloud bursts, shifting weather patterns, and landslides. The Himalayas, often referred to as the “Third Pole,” feed a significant number of major rivers; however, lost 40% of their ice over time. The Himalayan glacier melt threatens water security for nearly two billion in South Asia. South Asia is facing increasingly severe and potentially dangerous consequences of climate change.

The state of Jammu and Kashmir, renowned for being the most ecologically sustainable area globally, is experiencing severe effects of climate change. The total area of the state of Jammu and Kashmir is 84,471 Sq/miles.  Because of conflict, the state is divided into two regions: Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, also called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K).

The AJ&K lies between longitude 73°–75° and latitude 33° – 36°, and its total geographical area is 4,471 Sq/miles with ten districts. AJ&K has hilly mountainous regions within the Himalayan orogenic belt, divided into two geographical regions: a northern mountainous region, including  (Neelum, Muzaffarabad, Bagh, Jehlum, Haveli, Poonch, and Sudhnuti districts), and a southern plain region, including ( Mirpur, Kotli, and Bhimber) districts.

A report from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) states that the substantial melting glaciers in the region dangers downstream communities and local populations. The experts of climate have indicated that the Himalayas-Karakoram have shifted, serving as a protective barrier, becoming a zone of destruction, retreating at an alarming speed of 0.6 to 1.2.

Despite its small area, the region has a variety of climate types, ranging from sub-humid to subtropical to snow deserts.  In AJ&K, the snowline varies seasonally and regionally, with temperatures in northern mountainous regions ranging from freezing in winter to above 35-40 in the southern plain region.

In AJ&K, the Neelum Valley district is distinguished among all districts because it is home to all glaciers. According to research published in the Pakistan Journal of meteorology indicates that over 224 glaciers contain ice reserves of about 4.9 cubic km, mainly concentrated in the Neelum Valley.  Unfortunately, these glaciers are melting at an alarming pace.

Another research published in the Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change by Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan showed glacier deposit area decreased from 15,110 hectares in 2000 to 13,520 hectares in 2010. This accelerated rate continued, further reducing the glacier area to 11,350 hectares by 2017, showing 2,170 hectares in just seven years. A total of 3,760 hectares of glaciers melted from 2010 to 2017, showing a loss of 220 hectares of glaciers every year since 2000.

Over the past decade, the climate of AJ&K has undergone noticeable changes. About 10 to 15 years ago, the region generally experienced a more stable and favorable weather pattern. Rainfall and snowfall mostly occur between December and February, which are the winter peak months. During this period, winters in AJ&K are usually severe, and frost also forms due to intense cold weather.

Because of these cold conditions, freezing and low temperatures, the snow remained on the ground and the mountains for a long time and melted gradually. This slow melting process helped maintain relatively moderate summer temperatures. In addition, it also supported a steady flow of water in rivers as snow on the ground and glaciers melt continue throughout the summer months. Summer rainfall also tended to contribute to maintaining a balanced climate pattern.

These changes are not only statistical but are visible on the ground. Makra (spider mountain) stands at a height of 3586 meters at the border of Kaghan and Neelum valleys. The other side of Makra belongs to the Muzzafarabad district of AJ&K. Two decades ago, this Spider Peak remained covered with snow even during summers, but now snow has almost vanished during summers, as this peak has always remained covered with snow throughout the year.

Global warming and climate change have contributed to an increase in temperatures. However, there are several other factors, such as deforestation, initiating hydro projects without a proper mechanism, intensifying human activities on glaciers, and a surge in tourism, that have also damaged the weather pattern of AJ&K. In addition, loss of green cover, increasing vehicle emissions, forest or grass fire, and waste burning, air pollution, improper waste management, over-exploitation of natural resources, and changes in land use have further intensified the issue.  The northern mountainous regions in AJ&K used to experience a moderate temperature during the summer. The Muzaffarabad district had mild summers two decades ago, but has now become significantly hotter.

In addition, the construction of the Neelum Hydro-project without comprehensive environmental planning has disrupted the natural flow of the Neelum River. Natural resources are meant to benefit humans for humans, but only if they are used properly. As a result, the reduced flow of the River has altered the local microclimate, potentially contributing to the rise in temperature.

AJK is facing an alarming impact of both climate change and local mismanagement. Summer temperatures in northern mountainous regions have risen to 40° and 41°C, where they previously averaged between 34° and 36°C. These changes have serious impacts. Water shortages, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and landslides are all made more likely by the rapid melting of glaciers.

The government of AJ&K has announced its climate Policy in 2017; however, its implementation remains a distant goal. What is needed now is the enactment of serious polices along with effective implementation, mainly in ecologically vulnerable areas, to protect the region’s significant ecosystems.

This is not solely the responsibility of the government; the people of the state must also take proactive steps to save this ecology and environment. The changes observed over the past two decades required careful attention, greater awareness, and broader environmental actions. Understanding these changes is very important for adapting to future climate conditions and for protecting the natural resources and beauty of the region. Protecting this ecologically rich area is not only significant for its inhabitants, but also for the broader environmental stability of South Asia.