Iran After a Powerful Supreme Leader: Collapse Pathways, Power Redistribution, and Strategic Implications
January 23, 2026 2026-01-23 15:01Iran After a Powerful Supreme Leader: Collapse Pathways, Power Redistribution, and Strategic Implications
Iran After a Powerful Supreme Leader: Collapse Pathways, Power Redistribution, and Strategic Implications
CSAG INFORMATION PAPER
By: CENTCOM CSAG Officers
15 January 2026
Subject: “Iran After a Powerful Supreme Leader: Collapse Pathways, Power Redistribution, and Strategic Implications”
Purpose: This paper examines post-collapse dynamics in Iran, assessing how authority would be redistributed following the removal of the Supreme Leader (SL)-through death, assassination, incapacitation, or elite fragmentation, or revolutionary overthrow-and analyzing the resulting internal, regional, and international implications for U.S. interests.
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The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.
