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Ceasefire Part 1 – Understanding Threat Perception

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER Sanna Stark (CF4), SWE Armed Forces (CSAG/CCJ5) 20 August 2024   Introduction: Despite many months of pressure from the international community regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, the level of hostilities and distrust remains high. It is therefore pertinent to keep in mind both the strategic objectives of sustainable governance solutions for the Read More >

Understanding the Iranian Threat Network

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER CDR Hubert Mróz, Polish Navy (CSAG/CCJ5) 29 July 2024   Introduction: The Iranian Threat Network (ITN) has emerged as a complex and multifaceted challenge in the CENTCOM Area of Operations (AOR). This strategic paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the ITN, its models, significance, and the nuanced threat perceptions it Read More >

Deterring the “Exquisite Diplomat”: Unpacking the Complexities of U.S.-Iran Deterrence Dynamics

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER CDR Hubert Mróz, Polish Navy (CSAG/CCJ5), COL Sayed Mohammed, Egyptian Army (CSAG/CCJ5), and LTC Rene Berendsen, Royal Netherlands Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 8 July 2024   Introduction: The effectiveness of U.S. deterrence against Iran and its allies varies across different realms of power. In the military realm, the U.S., particularly through CENTCOM, has been Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Prospects and Complexities of China-Iran Relations, Implications for the US, and Regional & Global Repercussions

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER MAJ Ibrahim ELVEREN, TUR ARMY (CSAG/CCJ5) 20 May  2024   Introduction: China-Iran relations have steadily evolved and expanded in the domains of geopolitics, economics, and diplomacy since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The recent agreements and partnerships between the two countries, reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Central Asia – Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Stability

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER Identity withheld in accordance with partner nation agreement. (CSAG/CCJ5) 17 April  2024   Overview: Central Asia stands at a critical juncture, subject to influence by various global powers and regional actors. The strategic landscape is characterized by a delicate balance of interests, including those of the United States, Russia, China, and the Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Panacea for Gaza

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER COL Mohammed Sayed, Egyptian Army (CSAG/CCJ5), LTC Rene Berendsen, Royal Netherlands Army (CSAG/CCJ5), and CDR Hubert Mróz, Polish Navy (CSAG/CCJ5) 1 April  2024   Overview: The quest for stability in Gaza has long been a focal point of international attention, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the broader Palestinian Read More >

Yemen After the KSA-Iran Agreement: From Dreams to Harsh Reality and How This Fed Houthi Behavior in the Current Crisis

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: MAJ Felix Badut, ROMANIAN ARMY (CSAG/CCJ5) 20 February 2024   Overview: In 2014, Houthi rebels overtook Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in a push for increased military and political power, starting Yemen’s long-lasting civil war. The chaos created by the Houthi insurgents jeopardized the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) ambition for Read More >

Iran’s Elections, Wind of Change?

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 02 February 2024   Overview: Shaped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Iranian political landscape uniquely blends democratic and theocratic elements. The 12th parliamentary elections, the 6th Assembly of Experts elections on March 1, 2024, and the presidential elections in 2025 are playing pivotal roles Read More >

The Hamas – Israel Conflict: Forming A Potential “New Normal”

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: LTC Kashif Ehtisham, Pakistan Army (CSAG/CCJ5);CDR Hubert Mroz, Poland Navy (CSAG/CCJ5); and MAJ Ibrahim Elveren, Turkish Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 29 January 2024   Overview: The Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October has affected not only the political and security dynamics in the ME region but also the world at large.  This Read More >

Lebanon: A Potential Game Changer in the CENTCOM AOR

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: LTC GIAMPIERO CURRADO, ITA Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 16 January 2024   Overview: Years of political instability in combination with an ongoing economic crisis — exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the explosion in the Port of Beirut in August 2020 — have brought the country close to collapse. Moreover, the current institutional vacuum Read More >