By: LTC Marco PRANZO, ITA Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In 2020 the conflict in Syria was further exacerbated by the country’s worst economic crisis since 2011, international sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In this challenging socio-economic situation, a so-called oligopoly, encompassing Syrian and non-Syrian entities has formed. For years, the entities that Read More >
CENTCOM CSAG Papers
US Withdrawal from Iraq and Conditions that Enabled ISIS’ Spread: 2011 and 2021 Comparison
By: LTC Octavian Dorobantu, ROU Army, CSAG CCJ5 23 July 2021 Introduction: In early 2019, the ISIS caliphate was declared “defeated” after losing the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani. However, in 2020, a significant growth in IS attacks has been witnessed in their traditional heartlands of Syria and Iraq, as well as an increasing presence in Read More >
Turkey past Erdogan: The Turkish Expansionist Policy in the Region
By: LTC Marco Pranzo, ITA Army, CSAG CCJ5 16 July 2021 Introduction: From the Middle East to North Africa via the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey is trying to assert its influence in a region undergoing profound reorganization, and which is still highly unstable. Driven both by the ambition to become a regional power, and by specific Read More >
Turkey and Iran Geopolitical Approaches in the Middle East
By: COL Saud Alhasawi, Kuwait Army, CSAG CCJ5 16 July 2021 Introduction: Historically, Turkish-Iranian relations were characterized as a mix of both cooperation and competition. Each of the two has its own agenda and regionally projects power with ambitions towards sovereignty and control. The worsening of the Middle East’s regional situation has provided an opportunity Read More >
The Geopolitical Implications of Returning to the JCPOA
By: LTC Sami Alshehri, Saudi Arabian Military, CCJ5 CSAG 15 July 2021 Introduction: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a detailed agreement reached between Iran, and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (US, Russia, the UK, China, France), plus Germany (together the “P5+1”). The agreement was reached on July 14, 2015, and Read More >
Impact of Turkey’s Space Program on the Security Environment in CENTCOM’s AOR
By: CDR Azamat Murzabekov, Kazakhstan Armed Forces, CSAG CCJ5 13 July 2021 Introduction: Over the last decade, Turkey has invested in its space ambitions, resulting in the strengthening of its space-related know-how and strengthening its position within the global arena. In 2011, RASAT, and 2012, Gokturk 2, were launched into orbit. The two Earth Observation Read More >
Are We Facing a Shift in KSA-US Relations or is it Only a Temporary Weakening?
By: LTC Dusan Borak, CZE Air Force, CSAG CCJ5 13 July 2021 Introduction: Despite all the ideological differences between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA or the Kingdom), their partnership has so far been considered very strong, even though it was not based on a common foundation. The stopping support for Read More >
Effects of Climate Change to Balance of Power in the AOR
By: LTC Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, CSAG CCJ5 13 July 2021 Introduction: Climate change is the long-term change of temperature and typical weather patterns in a region. The climate of an area includes seasonal temperature and rainfall averages, and wind patterns. Approximately 74% of natural disasters between 2001 and 2018 were water related. These events Read More >
After Normalization, Why Does the Middle East Peace Process Still Matter?
By: Col Emad Elganzory, EGY Army, CSAG CCJ5 25 June 2021 Introduction: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been described as the mother of all issues in the Middle East. It is one of the most protracted and potentially dangerous conflicts in the world. After more than seven decades, resolving the conflict remains a distant dream. It Read More >
Security Issues Related to (Sea) Lines of Communication
By: LTC Arjen Wassink, NLD Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 25 June 2021 Introduction: The recent Container Ship EVER GIVEN incident in the Suez Canal shows just how vulnerable global sea transport chains are. The temporary inability to travel through the canal has disrupted all supply chains Read More >