By COL Mohamed Etman, Egyptian Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group
02 July 2020
The geopolitical implications of President Trump’s peace initiative “Peace to Prosperity – A Vision to the Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People” are analyzed for both Israel and Jordan. How Israeli annexation may affect the region is considered, recommendations are provided for the US and CENTCOM on how to move forward with Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians.
- Emboldened by what could be regarded a unique window of opportunity, Benjamin Netanyahu probably consider annexation of the West Bank an historic moment without acknowledging the risks.
- Benjamin’s Netanyahu’s annexation plan could end up threatening Israel’s long-term interests and – so far -warming relations with Arab and Muslim neighbors.
- Jordan might be left with no other choice but the dilemma of having to chose between its people’s demands and its geopolitical/diplomatic interests since it cannot afford to officially sever ties with Israel, and most importantly, with the US.
- The US should resort back to its core values and reconsider the use of military and economic aid as bargaining chips within negotiations.
The Palestinians, whose land has been under Israeli military occupation since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, continue to claim that the West Bank should be part of their future state, in which they still firmly believe. As such, they deem Israeli settlements illegal, as do most of the world powers. At the end of January 2020, President Trump unveiled the long-awaited US peace initiative, dubbed “Peace to Prosperity – A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People,” but immediately faced worldwide rejection.
The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.