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Deterring the “Exquisite Diplomat”: Unpacking the Complexities of U.S.-Iran Deterrence Dynamics

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER CDR Hubert Mróz, Polish Navy (CSAG/CCJ5), COL Sayed Mohammed, Egyptian Army (CSAG/CCJ5), and LTC Rene Berendsen, Royal Netherlands Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 8 July 2024   Introduction: The effectiveness of U.S. deterrence against Iran and its allies varies across different realms of power. In the military realm, the U.S., particularly through CENTCOM, has been Read More >

The Dynamics of the Fragile State of Iraq: The Impact of Political, Economic, and Security Factors

CSAG INFORMATION PAPER By: CSAG   03 July 2024 Subject:The Dynamics of the Fragile State of Iraq: The Impact of Political, Economic, and Security Factors. Purpose: This paper presents the CSAG’s analysis of the political, economic and security dynamics in Iraq, the extent of Iranian influence within the country, and potential future trajectories for Iraq. Read More >

The Israel-Hamas Conflict and its Impact on Central Asia Countries

CSAG INFORMATION PAPER By: LTC Carmine Lombardi, ITA Army (CSAG/CCJ5)   24 June 2024 Subject: The Israel-Hamas conflict and its impact on Central Asia countries. Purpose: This paper presents the CSAG’s analysis regarding the perceptions, consequences, and effects of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza on the Central Asian countries (CA). Read the complete paper here. Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Prospects and Complexities of China-Iran Relations, Implications for the US, and Regional & Global Repercussions

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER MAJ Ibrahim ELVEREN, TUR ARMY (CSAG/CCJ5) 20 May  2024   Introduction: China-Iran relations have steadily evolved and expanded in the domains of geopolitics, economics, and diplomacy since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The recent agreements and partnerships between the two countries, reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Central Asia – Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Stability

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER Identity withheld in accordance with partner nation agreement. (CSAG/CCJ5) 17 April  2024   Overview: Central Asia stands at a critical juncture, subject to influence by various global powers and regional actors. The strategic landscape is characterized by a delicate balance of interests, including those of the United States, Russia, China, and the Read More >

Reawakening Threats: The Reemergence of Islamic State Amid Global Distractions

CSAG INFORMATION PAPER By: LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5), Lt Col Richard Pecinka, CZE AF (CSAG/CCJ5), and MAJ Felix Badut, ROU Army (CSAG/CCJ5)   05 April 2024 Subject: “Reawakening Threats: The Reemergence of Islamic State Amid Global Distractions.” Purpose: This paper examines the reemergence of Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East. IS continues Read More >

CSAG Strategy Paper: Panacea for Gaza

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER COL Mohammed Sayed, Egyptian Army (CSAG/CCJ5), LTC Rene Berendsen, Royal Netherlands Army (CSAG/CCJ5), and CDR Hubert Mróz, Polish Navy (CSAG/CCJ5) 1 April  2024   Overview: The quest for stability in Gaza has long been a focal point of international attention, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the broader Palestinian Read More >

Yemen After the KSA-Iran Agreement: From Dreams to Harsh Reality and How This Fed Houthi Behavior in the Current Crisis

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: MAJ Felix Badut, ROMANIAN ARMY (CSAG/CCJ5) 20 February 2024   Overview: In 2014, Houthi rebels overtook Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in a push for increased military and political power, starting Yemen’s long-lasting civil war. The chaos created by the Houthi insurgents jeopardized the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) ambition for Read More >

Iran’s Elections, Wind of Change?

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: LTC René Berendsen, NLD Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 02 February 2024   Overview: Shaped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Iranian political landscape uniquely blends democratic and theocratic elements. The 12th parliamentary elections, the 6th Assembly of Experts elections on March 1, 2024, and the presidential elections in 2025 are playing pivotal roles Read More >

The Hamas – Israel Conflict: Forming A Potential “New Normal”

CSAG STRATEGY PAPER By: LTC Kashif Ehtisham, Pakistan Army (CSAG/CCJ5);CDR Hubert Mroz, Poland Navy (CSAG/CCJ5); and MAJ Ibrahim Elveren, Turkish Army (CSAG/CCJ5) 29 January 2024   Overview: The Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October has affected not only the political and security dynamics in the ME region but also the world at large.  This Read More >