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Commercial UASs as a New Component of Modern Warfare

By: CDR Azamat Murzabekov, Kazakhstan Armed Forces, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 26 May 2021 Introduction: Since the end of the Cold War, unconventional asymmetric warfare has become the primary means of military conflict by the enemies of the US. Armed civilian and paramilitary forces have become more Read More >

China is Striving to Change How it is Perceived in Central Asian States

By : MAJ Naoki Tajiri, Japan Ground Self-defense Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 26 May 2021 Introduction: Central Asian political stability and security are of great importance to China. Therefore, China seeks to strengthen regional border controls, lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and contribute to stabilizing Read More >

Strategic Estimate 2021

By Combined Strategic Analysis Group – CCJ5-G – USCENTCOM May 2021 Introduction: USCENTCOM CCJ5 Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) produces a yearly, forward looking AOR Strategic Estimate for Commander USCENTCOM and staff. This Estimate is the 48th since 2003. The previous Estimate was released on 4 May 2020. The May 2021 Estimate is current as Read More >

Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?

By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >

President Al-Sisi Puts Egypt Back on its Feet

By LTC Sami Alshehri, Saudi Arabian Military, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 30 Mar 2021 Introduction: As some have observed, the Muslim Brotherhood government that followed the 2011 revolution completely failed and created a power vacuum. However, Brotherhood rule in Egypt effectively ended the utopian idea that political Read More >

Coherency of EU Foreign Policies towards the USCENTCOM AOR

By LtCol Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 19 Mar 2021 Introduction: Within the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), the European Union (EU) policies towards Central and South Asia, and the Middle East are widely different and lack a comprehensive approach. While the EU published Read More >

Blacklisting the Houthis: What is the Price – What is the Gain?

By LtCol Michael von Normann, German Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group, Middle East Branch 9 Feb 2021 Introduction: On December 30, 2020, three precision-guided missiles struck Aden Airport where a plane carrying Yemeni cabinet members had just landed. The strike killed twenty-seven people and wounded over 130. Read More >

Iran’s South Korea-Flagged Oil Tanker Seizure: What Does this Action Mean?

By Lieutenant Colonel Youngsuk Lee, Republic of Korea Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 8 Feb 2021 Introduction: On 5 January 2021, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the South Korea-flagged oil tanker M/T HANKUK CHEMI in the Strait of Hormuz. As a justification, Iran cited alleged Read More >