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Strategic Estimate 2021

By Combined Strategic Analysis Group – CCJ5-G – USCENTCOM May 2021 Introduction: USCENTCOM CCJ5 Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) produces a yearly, forward looking AOR Strategic Estimate for Commander USCENTCOM and staff. This Estimate is the 48th since 2003. The previous Estimate was released on 4 May 2020. The May 2021 Estimate is current as Read More >

Will a Major US Disengagement in the Middle East Lead to Conflicts Resulting in More Refugees and Migration?

By LTC Ali AL-Kaabi, UAE Air Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 07 May 2021 Introduction: Recent indicators stress a likely US gradual disengagement from CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. This likely US disengagement would affect key areas including national/regional security, the change in migration patterns, the affected countries’ Read More >

President Al-Sisi Puts Egypt Back on its Feet

By LTC Sami Alshehri, Saudi Arabian Military, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 30 Mar 2021 Introduction: As some have observed, the Muslim Brotherhood government that followed the 2011 revolution completely failed and created a power vacuum. However, Brotherhood rule in Egypt effectively ended the utopian idea that political Read More >

Coherency of EU Foreign Policies towards the USCENTCOM AOR

By LtCol Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 19 Mar 2021 Introduction: Within the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), the European Union (EU) policies towards Central and South Asia, and the Middle East are widely different and lack a comprehensive approach. While the EU published Read More >

Blacklisting the Houthis: What is the Price – What is the Gain?

By LtCol Michael von Normann, German Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group, Middle East Branch 9 Feb 2021 Introduction: On December 30, 2020, three precision-guided missiles struck Aden Airport where a plane carrying Yemeni cabinet members had just landed. The strike killed twenty-seven people and wounded over 130. Read More >

Iran’s South Korea-Flagged Oil Tanker Seizure: What Does this Action Mean?

By Lieutenant Colonel Youngsuk Lee, Republic of Korea Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 8 Feb 2021 Introduction: On 5 January 2021, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the South Korea-flagged oil tanker M/T HANKUK CHEMI in the Strait of Hormuz. As a justification, Iran cited alleged Read More >

China’s Territorial Ambition in Central Asia

  By MAJ Naoki Tajiri, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 4 Feb 2021 Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has restarted China’s revisionism along with their ambition of territorial expansion and accelerated their long-term plans. After World War II, China advanced westward and invaded Tibet in Read More >

Facilitating Stability in Afghanistan

By Lt Col Farhan Ali, Pakistan Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 3 Feb 2021 Introduction: Almost 20 years in, the Afghanistan war has entered a phase where the peace dividend outweighs the potential benefits of continued conflict. Major warring parties have reached a stalemate as NATO cannot Read More >

Impact of India-China Tensions in the CENTCOM AoR

  By Lt Col Farhan Ali, Pakistan Army, US Central Command: Strategy Plans and Policy Directorate; Combined Strategic Analysis Group 25 Jan 2021 Introduction: Complex territorial disputes, economic competition, and broader geostrategic competition between India and China cause tensions along the world’s longest unsettled group of borders. The circa 3500 kilometer Indo-China border is divided Read More >

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